Journal of Urban Economics and Management

Given the rapid population growth in the current century, the issue of food has become one of the most critical and vital challenges. Accordingly, the concept of food security has emerged on the global stage. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of climate change, weather variability, and international trade on food security in the metropolis of Tabriz during 2023–2024. The statistical population included individuals over 18 years of age in Tabriz, from which a sample of 100 participants was selected using simple random sampling. The research instrument was a researcher-designed questionnaire consisting of 30 questions based on a five-point Likert scale (from “strongly agree” to “strongly disagree”). For data analysis, SPSS version 26 was used.

This research was descriptive and field-based, employing Pearson correlation to analyze the relationship between climate change, weather variability, international trade, and food security in Tabriz during the studied years. The analysis of the data indicates that recent climatic changes in the Tabriz region have had significant effects on improving food security. Pearson correlation results showed a positive and significant effect of rising temperatures on extending the growing season (with a coefficient of 0.522) and reducing frost damage (by up to 30%), which led to a 12% increase in the production of strategic crops such as wheat and barley, as well as improvements in the quality of orchard products. Moreover, changes in rainfall patterns toward heavier but shorter-term precipitation increased water storage in dams and made the cultivation of high-value crops possible.

On the other hand, the expansion of international trade, with a correlation coefficient of 0.578, had the greatest impact on food security, stemming from a 35% increase in grain imports and the growth of orchard product exports. Government policies also played a complementary role in strengthening food security by providing subsidies for agricultural inputs, expanding pressurized irrigation systems (raising irrigation efficiency from 45% to 68%), and supporting greenhouse farming (resulting in a 25% increase in vegetable production).

Overall, these factors have contributed to improving the food security index and reducing the prices of essential food baskets in Tabriz.