Seyed Parviz Jalili Kamjo, Younes Nademi,
Volume 7, Issue 25 (3-2019)
Abstract
Abstract: The housing market is one of the most important subsectors of capital markets that have the most backward and forward linkages with other sectors. Because of the high dependence of Iranian economy to oil revenues, oil price shocks can be affect the housing market. The aim of this study is to analyze the business cycle of the housing market, with emphasis on the impact of oil shocks on the return of housing. According to APM model, regardless of portfolio selected, several factors affect the return of housing assets that in this study, the risk and shocks of macroeconomic factors including money supply, private sector investment, housing facilities allocated by special Maskan Bank and oil export revenues, have been analyzed on the housing return by a Markov regime-switching GARCH model during the period 1982 -2016. The results have shown that the return of housing in the Iranian economy has three high, moderate and low return regimes. So that the volatility of the housing return is different in each of the three regimes. Housing returns volatility at the low return regime is more than volatility of returns at the moderate and high return regimes. Therewith in the 35 years of the research period, housing market has been 13 years in the moderate return regime, 20 years in the low return regime and only 2 years in the high return regime. The results also showed that based on Dutch disease hypothesis oil shocks, liquidity and private investment have a significant positive impact on the return of housing but the housing facilities of Maskan Bank have a significant negative impact on the return of housing.
Mahsoomeh Khooshegol Garusi, Zahra Afshari,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (5-2020)
Abstract
Residential investment is the main component of investment and has a crucial rule in output and employment. The residential investment is affected by macroeconomic shocks. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the pace at which housing investment has responded to different macroeconomics shocks in Ian in the 1978- 2017 period by using the BVAR method. Four macroeconomic shocks are introduced to the model i.e. exchange rate, monetary, fiscal, and oil income shocks. The Sims-Zha (Normal-Wishart) was recolonized the most appropriate prior function for our data set. The Impulse response functions reveal that one standard deviation positive shocks to exchange rate, interest rate, government expenditure, and oil income initially increased housing investment and then gradually returned to its steady-state value. Oil price and monetary shocks had the shortest and longest duration impact on residential investment. The highest volatility in residential investment created by the fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and oil income shocks respectively. The results indicate that the policymaker should consider the difference in the amount and duration of the impacts of four macroeconomic shocks on residential investment in the policymaking.
