fa تأثیر تحولات بازارها بر بازار مسکن شهری در ایران: با تأکید بر نااطمینانی ‌های قیمت بازار طلا تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <br> <div style="text-align: justify;"></div> <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:14px;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">The housing sector is one of the major economic sectors that has a wide relationship with other economic sectors in terms of its past and previous relationships and is affected by the developments of other sectors and affects them. Meanwhile, the gold market is one of the important economic sectors that has always influenced the movement of housing sector variables. In this study, regarding the impact of the gold market on the housing sector, the impact of the housing sector on the uncertainties of the gold market and its long-term trend as a replacement for the urban housing sector has been investigated. For this purpose, money, currency, stock and gold markets have been considered as parallel markets and the oil market as a market affecting the Iranian economy and have been studied using quarterly data from 1371 to 1397. The results of the HEGY seasonal unit root test showed that the time series of the present study have a seasonal unit root. Gold market uncertainty is also extracted using the conditional heterogeneity variance model of asymmetric generalized autoregression, which is more flexible than the family of conditional heterogeneity variance self-return models for modeling time series data. According to the elastic values of the model variables, the most important factor affecting the housing index, respectively the variables of fluctuations in the gold market, has been GDP. Among these, the basic role of the two variables of exchange rate and liquidity is also important.</span></span></div> بازار مسکن, بازار ارز, بازار پول, بازار سهام, قیمت نفت, نااطمینانی بازار طلا Housing Market, Foreign Exchange Market, Money Market, Stock Market, Oil Price, Uncertainty about the Gold Market 95 112 http://iueam.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-857-104&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 ‪Mahdi Sadeghi Shahdani ‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬ مهدی صادقی شاهدانی 10031947532846008386 10031947532846008386 No Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics, Imam Sadiq (Pbuh) University, Tehran, Iran دانشکده معارف اسلامی و اقتصاد، دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)، تهران، ایران Mohammadreza Sezavar محمدرضا سزاوار mr.sezavar@yahoo.com 10031947532846008387 10031947532846008387 Yes Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Sheid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شید بهشتی، تهران، ایران Alireza Khazaei علیرضا خزایی 10031947532846008388 10031947532846008388 No Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Sheid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شید بهشتی، تهران، ایران mojtaba eslamiyan مجتبی اسلامیان 10031947532846008389 10031947532846008389 No Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران